Spring wheat ’s condition dropped for the fourth straight week, the latest being just a 1-point dip to 40% good to excellent with declines reported in the majority of the six states that USDA surveys.
Winter wheat’s condition stayed at 49% good/excellent. The crop was 41% harvested, which was ahead of the five-year average.
Corn was unchanged at 67% good/excellent in USDA’s weekly progress report, contrary to some forecasts for a slight improvement. Corn in Illinois, Indiana and Iowa improved a little. Missouri’s corn improved 3 points while Kansas was unchanged at 61%. North Dakota’s corn dropped 5 points to 56% good/excellent for one of the bigger drops among key producers.
Soybeans slipped 1 point to 66% good/excellent and were down from last year’s 72%. Improvements were noted in Illinois, Kansas, Missouri and Ohio, while Iowa was unchanged and crops in Indiana and Nebraska declined.
“The drop in the spring wheat ratings knocked more than a third of a bushel off our yield projection, which is now right around 41 bpa for both the state-by-state and national models. Declines were seen in all the key states except Montana, where yields are still very low,” said Bryce Knorr, Farm Futures senior grain analyst.
The decline in spring wheat was offset by an incremental increase in winter wheat ratings as harvest brings more data in. Knorr said that increase added about a tenth of a bushel per acre to yield potential, which ranged from 46 to 47.1 bpa according to Farm Futures models.
Corn ratings eased slightly on the state-by-state projections, though the national total was steady.
“Gains were seen across the middle of the Corn Belt from Kansas to Ohio, with losses in the west and north. Our yield projections range from 169.4 to 170.9, with the average at 170.1,” said Knorr. “Yield projections from Vegetation Health Index maps, while improving, remain significantly behind the ratings, running in the range of 155 to 164 bpa.”
The dip in soybean ratings took about .15 bpa from the yield potential, said Knorr. Models based on the ratings point to yield potential of 48.7 to 49.5 bpa.
“The VHI for soybeans is a little lower, but still on track with average at 48 bpa,” he said.
Iowa reported below-normal rainfall last week for most of the state. While topsoil moisture statewide was 70 % adequate and 2% surplus, the state said moisture levels in the southeast “continued to fall with 78% rated short to very short.”
In other tallies, corn silking reached 4%, which was one point behind the average and soybean blooming was 9% versus the 7% average.
“Dry conditions persisted over much of the state as little to no rain was received,” North Dakota said. “Some isolated areas in the northern and eastern portions of North Dakota received up to half an inch of moisture. The southwestern third of the state received no rainfall, which caused continued stress to emerged crops.”
North Dakota’s spring wheat dropped 3 points to 39% good/excellent. South Dakota’s spring wheat dropped to 12% good/excellent from 14%. Idaho’s crop dropped 9 points to 53% good/excellent.
Nationally, sorghum was 20% headed versus the 22% average. The crop was rated 65% good/excellent, down 1 from a week ago.